# Iteration Count vs Distance Estimate
Conjectured bounds presented without proof, after some mathematical experiments in the Mandelbrot set.
# 1 Exterior
Calculate:
with escape radius .
Plot many points in blue on a log-log scale:

The green curve is approaching the tip of the antenna from the left, bounding like: if distance is smaller than d, iteration count must be larger than N(d). The relationship of the curve seems to be:
The red curve is approaching seahorse valley along an external ray, bounding like: if iteration count is larger than N, distance must be smaller than d(N). The relationship of the curve seems to be:
Combining the bounds:
Conjecture presented without proof.
# 2 Interior
The largest component of a given period is probably in the period doubling cascade (iirc, need to check this…). It scales by Feigenbaum constant 4.6692… Feigenbaum constant (wikipedia). So
The smallest component of a given period is nearest the tip of the antenna, with scaling by factor 16:
A new scaling along the spike of the Mandelbrot set, – Michael Frame, A.G. Davis Philip, and Adam Robucci, Computers & Graphics, Volume 16, Issue 2, 1992, Pages 223-234, ISSN 0097-8493, https://doi.org/10.1016/0097-8493(92)90050-6
Reprinted in
Chaos and Fractals: A Computer Graphical Journey (Chapter 40), ed. C.A. Pickover, 1998, pages 269-280, ISBN 978-0-444-50002-1 https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044450002-1/50045-X
Child bulbs of top level cardioid scale approximately like conjectured for the parameterization (which has top level discs, so no factor) of in
On the Dynamics of Iterated Maps III: The Individual Molecules of the M-Set, Self-Similiarity Properties, the Empirical Rule, and the Conjecture. – Benoit B. Mandelbrot, in Chaos, Fractals, and Dynamics, eds. P. Fischer and William R. Smith, 1985, ISBN 0-8247-7325-X https://archive.org/details/chaosfractalsdyn0000unse
A related conjecture is proven in
A Proof of the Mandelbrot Conjecture – John Guckenheimer and Richard McGehee, Report No, 15, 1984, Institut Mittag-Leffler https://pi.math.cornell.edu/~gucken/PDF/MandelbrotN2.pdf
and the size estimate is proven in
The size of Mandelbrot bulbs – A.C. Fowler and M.J. McGuinness, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals: X, Elsevier BV, 2019, vol 3, ISSN 2590-0544 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csfx.2019.100019
These could provide bounds on interior distance vs period. Conjecture (probably could be sharpened):
Bounding period the other way is not possible because can get arbitrarily small in any component, but the size of the smallest components (assuming they are indeed the cardioid-like one nearest -2 for each ) seems to be
as , relative to the top level cardioid with ..
# 3 Applications
Efficient rendering of accurate images of the Mandelbrot set with ternary colouring:
- interior
- boundary / unknown
- exterior
without wasting time iterating further if the distance is surely going to be less than a pixel.
This sort of image can provide estimates of the area of the Mandelbrot set and the box-counting dimension of its boundary.
# 4 Caveats
Don’t forget the approximate nature of distance estimates!
For bounds on square grids, you need factors of 4 in both directions, and another factor of for the diagonal vs edge of a square.
# 5 Numerical Verification
Output from a numerical search (wall-clock computation time 100mins using 16 threads on AMD 2700X CPU with 32GB RAM):
| level | total | int | bdry | ext | dim | ext00 | ext01 | ext10 | ext11 | int00 | int01 | int10 | int11 | maxn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | inf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 1.585 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 64 | 0 | 30 | 34 | 1.322 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 256 | 0 | 76 | 180 | 1.341 | 0 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5 | 1024 | 28 | 204 | 792 | 1.424 | 0 | 90 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | 4096 | 224 | 528 | 3344 | 1.372 | 0 | 232 | 25 | 16 | 0 | 127 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 7 | 16384 | 1144 | 1416 | 13824 | 1.423 | 0 | 585 | 70 | 73 | 0 | 310 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| 8 | 65536 | 5246 | 3860 | 56430 | 1.447 | 0 | 1568 | 166 | 292 | 0 | 754 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| 9 | 262144 | 22524 | 10926 | 228694 | 1.501 | 0 | 4333 | 523 | 1005 | 0 | 1722 | 13 | 124 | 0 |
| 10 | 1048576 | 93560 | 31996 | 923020 | 1.550 | 0 | 12537 | 1393 | 3600 | 0 | 4068 | 20 | 234 | 0 |
| 11 | 4194304 | 382452 | 96310 | 3715542 | 1.590 | 0 | 37071 | 3893 | 12712 | 0 | 9673 | 55 | 588 | 0 |
| 12 | 16777216 | 1549726 | 296924 | 14930566 | 1.624 | 0 | 111993 | 10828 | 44752 | 0 | 23435 | 121 | 1491 | 0 |
| 13 | 67108864 | 6246846 | 933646 | 59928372 | 1.653 | 0 | 346000 | 30231 | 157452 | 0 | 56212 | 316 | 3637 | 0 |
| 14 | 268435456 | 25101832 | 2992092 | 240341532 | 1.680 | 0 | 1083600 | 83949 | 554581 | 0 | 135398 | 753 | 9011 | 0 |
| 15 | 1073741824 | 100682952 | 9738028 | 963320844 | 1.702 | 0 | 3449490 | 234738 | 1949103 | 0 | 327014 | 1765 | 22074 | 0 |
| 16 | 4294967296 | 403399250 | 32112302 | 3859455744 | 1.721 | 0 | 11107656 | 655969 | 6860976 | 0 | 791698 | 4146 | 55611 | 0 |
| 17 | 17179869184 | 1615209248 | 107071442 | 15457588494 | 1.737 | 0 | 36149910 | 1831093 | 24174993 | 0 | 1915278 | 10132 | 143198 | 0 |
| 18 | 68719476736 | 6464740072 | 360459914 | 61894276750 | 1.751 | 0 | 118683648 | 5105618 | 85313908 | 0 | 4644022 | 24353 | 371335 | 0 |
| 19 | 274877906944 | 25868424012 | 1223643514 | 247785839418 | 1.763 | 0 | 392785193 | 14225571 | 301596356 | 0 | 11271736 | 59563 | 981405 | 4 |
- level
-
grid of 2level cells to a side
- total
-
4level
- int
-
guaranteed interior by distance estimate
- bdry
-
might contain boundary
- ext
-
guaranteed exterior by distance estimate
- dim
-
estimate of box-counting dimension of boundary
- ext00
-
counter-examples: large d, high N
- ext01, ext10, ext11
-
other cases
- int00
-
counter-examples: large d, high period
- int01, int10, int11
-
other cases
- maxn
-
potential counter-examples: high N, no d calculated as maximum iteration count was reached, no period detected
# 5.1 Potential Counter-Examples
Further analysis of the 4 unescaped potential counter-examples, with higher precision or iteration count limits, shows they are all satisfy the conjectured bound :
precision = 100 bits
c = 3.7489700317382812500000000000000e-01 + -2.0824050903320312500000000000000e-01 i
N = 3558118.22734
d = 2.53377e-24
precision = 53 bits
c = -0.170772552490234375 + -0.827236175537109375 i
N = 2504192738.88534
d = 2.1389e-112
precision = 53 bits
c = -1.052913665771484375 + -0.252559661865234375 i
N = 6432091876.80757
d = 3.274e-121
precision = 53 bits
c = -1.072231292724609375 + -0.239337921142578125 i
N = 2155547023.15851
d = 2.0166e-276
Note: absence of known counter-examples isn’t a proof of correctness.
# 5.2 Area Estimate
The last line of the table provides an estimate for the area of the Mandelbrot set :
(Not rigorous bounds because floating point rounding isn’t taken into account, among other things.)